In the early hours of 2025, Europe will receive its last Russian natural gas via Ukraine’s pipelines, while the region prepares for a cold wave that could accelerate the depletion of reserves.

The reduction in natural gas supply to Europe via Ukraine will result from the expiration of the transit agreement between Gazprom and the Ukrainian Naftogaz, which was signed five years ago. Due to the lack of a new agreement, Gazprom is expected to halt exports on New Year’s Day, marking a historic shift following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it will not sign a new agreement to replace the previous one, which expires on December 31, due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of its territory, now approaching its third year.

Russia was once the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe. However, since the war in Ukraine, it has lost its customers, with buyers turning to the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. 2025 may be the first year since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 that no natural gas will flow through Ukraine to Europe.