Hello, usually in August the only thing we don’t deal with is polls, since… even the stones know that conducting surveys during vacation season is pointless, people are… generally offline. I saw a survey yesterday from the company Interview (for politic.gr) and I want to comment on a few things, noting first that it’s an online survey, not a telephone one as far as I know. You’ve seen the numbers, they’re roughly at pre-August levels, although, I repeat, forgive me researchers, but a poll in August is like… a North Korean tourist, just saying. Anyway, I noticed two things: first, the expected one, that our leader Alexis is sucking in SYRIZA support, and second, the stance of a large portion of PASOK voters, who do not appear indifferent at all when asked about Tsipras. Specifically, they are asked, “If Mr. Tsipras forms his own party, what should SYRIZA do?” I would have expected the vast majority to respond with the classic “Don’t Know/No Answer,” which in plain Greek means “you and your cricket can go jump in a lake.” But the PASOK voters answer only 25% DK/NA, and the rest (39%) say SYRIZA should not go with Tsipras, while 23% say SYRIZA should merge with Tsipras. Seems like PASOK voters are a bit more interested in Tsipras than usual—or is it just me? I’m no pollster, but those numbers look big to me…

The other polls…

• Now, I asked my own polling sources what’s going on, and they told me that routinely before late August “we don’t do polls.” I hear that a survey will start around the end of the week so there’s a comparison with the one that will happen after the Thessaloniki International Fair. To see what the media’s announcements brought, whether they improved the government’s image, which was mainly hit by OPEKEPE in the last two months.

Ms. Marangeli’s turn…

• Yesterday we had a new episode in the famous Novartis case, which might go down in history as the largest scheme-fiasco of the Metapolitefsi era, for which, yes, the real perpetrators will surely pay with convictions, but not the moral perpetrators—the politicians who “pushed” this clumsy lie, as proven in courtrooms or soon to be proven. Yesterday, the main prosecution witness Maria Marangeli testified again, saying, as Frozi’s secretary, that she personally saw… wheeled suitcases going to Samaras at Maximos, envelopes to Adonis, etc. Of course, if she had changed her testimony yesterday—since she has said exactly the same before—she would have worsened her own position in the case, knowing lawsuits are coming from everyone she slandered. But the problem, I’m told, isn’t just that. Ms. Marangeli, as a “witness,” has received a huge sum from the US government out of the 53 million euros the Americans allocated to “reveal” the Novartis scandal, and we don’t know what she reported to the Greek tax authorities. My source says we’ll have fireworks this winter.

Takis’ tickets for the development laws

• Yesterday, Takis Theodorikakos sent to AADE for collection claims of 43 million euros from various people who had received money under the development laws of 2004, 2011, and 2016. Basically, some people took money, didn’t do what they were supposed to, but were not checked properly. Now the checks have been done and the tickets were sent. I hear that in the coming weeks the collection notices will reach more people, as audits continue and at least 50 beneficiaries are checked every week. Specifically, next Tuesday the Minister of Development will announce another batch of orders sent to AADE to recover 40–50 million euros in subsidies given to companies under previous development laws that did not implement their investment plans. As mentioned, every week a new batch of recovery orders will be announced.

1,400 investment plans not completed—480 million sought

• Once the review of companies under the 2004 development law is completed, the return of subsidies under the 2011 law and then 2016 will be announced. In total, about 1,400 investment plans were not completed, with total recovery claims exceeding 480 million euros. In the first phase, companies under the 2004 and 2011 development laws that did not file review applications by April 1, 2024, as well as those that did not substantiate project progress or abandoned them, are audited. Also targeted are SMEs that received subsidies under exceptional measures (e.g., energy costs) but exceeded state aid limits, made VAT errors, or did not meet criteria. About 2,500 companies are called to return part of the funding, especially in areas where the EU did not approve total subsidies or procedural errors were found.

New CEO at the Railway

• Significant announcements on the administrative structure of Hellenic Railways S.A. will be made by the end of the week, and the appointment of Christos Palaios as CEO of the new company that merged OSE-ERGOSSE and GAIAOSE is expected to be confirmed. Palaios took over ERGOSSE after Tempi and finalized contract 717, under which critical railway safety interventions are implemented. Key positions are also expected to be filled by Greeks from the diaspora who responded to the call of the competent Minister Konstantinos Kyranakis to return and staff the new organization, with appropriate compensation, following the DEH model.

The Task Force for banks

• From yesterday’s meeting with Stournaras, Hatzidakis, Pierrakakis-Floridis, bankers, and servicers, no final decisions emerged on securitizations, as several issues remain pending. However, I hear they discussed creating a task force with staff from the Bank of Greece, ministries, banks, and servicers to handle emerging issues that can be solved through quick cooperation. Overall, the mood was not “war-like” as in previous phases.

Holterman, Ellaktor, and Alimos Marina

• With much interest, probably in September, announcements are expected on the next chapter for Ellaktor. The group, in the hands of Dutch billionaire Henry Holterman, will further inflate its cash once the sale of Ktima Kamba in Kantza Pallini and the property in Gournes, Heraklion to Dimand is formally completed. The deal was around 85 million euros, adding to those of Ilektor acquired by Motor Oil and recently Aktor Concessions acquired by AKTOR Group (123 million euros, with debt also transferred). Divestment moves seem completed, the cash will be filled, so shareholders have every reason to smile waiting for cash distributions. Dividends and capital returns are also expected from the old Attiki Odos contract. After a 174 million euro capital return in 2024, Ellaktor returned 296 million more to shareholders, totaling 470 million euros. In September, management will update shareholders on strategy. There may be announcements for further distributions, mostly benefiting Holterman and Reggeborgh, and in the last ten sessions the stock had a mini 12% rally before yesterday’s close. Ellaktor still has significant assets, primarily Alimos Marina, which will remain in group ownership for development. Building permits are expected soon for the redevelopment. They also hold properties for hospitality and tourism, including the former Civitel Hotel in Marousi (leased 25 years to REDS – SWOT Hospitality), being renovated to reopen as The Fiction.

Funds and the stock exchange chessboard

• The ATHEX stock stands steadily above 7 euros, without daring to reach 7.5€, as it did recently when Euronext flirting began. Daily trades are many, with investment funds currently shareholders actively buying from the market. Praude Asset Management has increased its stake to 6.58%, Qube Research 1.53%, Morgan Stanley 1.17%, UBS 1%, Jefferies International 0.76%, ArrowStreet Capital 1.79%, Capital Group 1.12%. Combined, these funds hold over 13%.

Greek Banks, France, and bonds

• Across all maturities, Greek bonds are priced better than French. On the 10-year, Greece pays 3.4% and France 3.5%. Greek banks hold 2.2 billion euros in French bonds out of a total 82 billion euros in bonds. The problem is that bond investors now see France at the same risk level as Italy, a bad omen not only for markets but for political stability in Europe. Traditionally, France was the second “pillar” of the Eurozone after Germany, with lower borrowing costs and market credibility. Now that it’s compared to Italy, long seen as a “weak link” due to high debt and political instability, concerns about French public finances have intensified. Pressure on France challenges the Eurozone overall. If the second-largest economy in the monetary union starts pricing at Italy’s risk premiums, the very notion of the “Franco-German axis” suffers. This isn’t just a technical market issue—it’s politically symbolic: France seems to be losing its position as Germany’s stable partner while Europe faces geopolitical and economic challenges.

Two stock exchange sessions in the price of one

• Yesterday’s session at the Stock Exchange was highly toxic and full of strange events. The value of trades by 5 p.m. had reached 280 million euros. But when it came time for the auctions and the completion of the MSCI index rebalancing, the value of trades almost doubled, skyrocketing to 457.66 million euros, with 38.72 million € in block trades. It was as if we had a second, shorter stock exchange session, but with roughly the same turnover. One of the day’s oddities was Alpha’s stock. It closed down -6.34% at 3.54 euros, but in the market, the last order had buyers for 5.5 million shares. In other banks, National (-2.97%) fell to 12.40 euros, Piraeus (-0.79%) to 7.006, and Eurobank (-1.99%) to 3.34. Bank of Cyprus (-0.25%) held steady at 7.88€, and CrediaBank (+2.52%) showed it’s following its own independent path at 1.548 euros. Metlen (-0.27%) kept yesterday’s gains at 54.6€, while Aegean (+0.27%) continues to fly at historic highs of 15.02€. Once again, Alumil (+2.52%) went against the tide, reaching 5.7€.

Geopolitical uncertainty and political instability keep gold high

• Goldman Sachs announced that it “sees” gold reaching up to 4,000 dollars/ounce by mid-2026. The turbulence at the US Federal Reserve, the mention of the “nasty three-letter word” in France where more and more are talking about turning to the IMF, wars that never end—all of this together drove gold up 28% since the start of the year. Central banks in emerging economies are increasing gold purchases as a way to diversify from US government bonds and the dollar. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that consistently strong investment demand, combined with the limited pace of new production, creates a scenario where supply-demand imbalances can push gold to new heights. Monetary policy is also a significant factor: even if interest rates remain relatively high, expectations of gradual cuts over the next two years make gold attractive compared to bonds. Gold remains a risk-hedging tool, but increasingly it’s also a profit-making vehicle in an environment where traditional markets struggle to provide stable returns.

First analyses of the Wall Street “bubble”

• Bank of America asked its own fund managers. Nine out of ten BoA managers (91%) believe US stocks are overvalued today. Wall Street now seems to live in its own euphoria bubble, detached from reality: technology, artificial intelligence, mega-mergers, new all-time highs. Stock valuations are running faster than earnings. Market professionals, institutional investors quietly reduce equity positions and “park” capital in bonds and gold. You won’t read it on front pages, but you’ll see it in the flows. A market everyone recognizes as overvalued eventually corrects—dramatically or in a controlled way. The only unknown is when and by which catalyst. The question is no longer whether the “bubble will burst,” but who will be left exposed when sentiment flips.

Tiny houses in Canada, an answer to the housing problem

• In Canada, more and more tiny homes are appearing as a solution to one of the biggest problems in developed countries: affordable housing. These are small houses, equipped with heating, plumbing, and the basic square meters to ensure decent living. They cost much less than traditional homes and can be built quickly, allowing local authorities to immediately provide housing for thousands of citizens on the streets. Placing the homeless in safe, individual dwellings reduces pressure on emergency shelters. Statistically, having a home reduces ER visits, criminal system involvement, and reliance on social services—factors that heavily impact the public budget. In other words, one dollar invested in tiny homes can save multiples in long-term social expenses. Critics of this policy point out the risk of creating social exclusion ghettos or drug use.