China has reportedly deployed more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in its three newest nuclear silos and shows no inclination to engage in arms control talks, according to a draft US Pentagon report that reflects Beijing’s rapidly strengthening military ambitions.

The report, cited by Reuters, said China is expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal faster than any other nuclear power in the world. A similar assessment is made by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a Chicago-based non-profit organization. Beijing, however, categorically rejects reports of military escalation, calling them attempts to “slander and defame China” and deliberately mislead the international community.

Last month, United States President Donald Trump said he may be working on a denuclearisation plan in cooperation with China and Russia. However, the Pentagon’s draft report concludes that Beijing does not appear willing to participate in such initiatives. “We continue to find no inclination from Beijing to promote such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” it said.

Particular mention is made of DF-31 solid fuel missiles, with the report estimating that China has installed more than 100 such intercontinental ballistic missiles in silos near the border with Mongolia. The Pentagon had previously confirmed the existence of these silo fields, but did not disclose the number of missiles that had been deployed. The US Department of Defense declined to comment on the information.

For its part, the Chinese embassy in Washington maintained that the country “maintains a defensive nuclear strategy, keeps its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and adheres to its commitment to a moratorium on nuclear testing.” The report does not identify possible targets for the new missiles, and U.S. officials note that its contents may be modified before it is submitted to Congress.

According to Pentagon data, the Chinese nuclear warhead stockpile was in the “low 600s” in 2024, reflecting a “slower rate of production compared to previous years.” Nevertheless, the report highlights that nuclear expansion is continuing and that China is on track to have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Beijing reiterates that it is pursuing a “self-defence” strategy and a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons.

Donald Trump has also said he wants the US to resume nuclear testing, without specifying what form such a move might take. In the past, both he during his first term and former US President Joe Biden have attempted to engage China and Russia in negotiations to replace the New START treaty with a trilateral strategic nuclear test agreement.

The Pentagon report also places particular emphasis on Taiwan, estimating that China “expects to be able to fight and win a war for Taiwan by the end of 2027”. Beijing considers democratically ruled Taiwan part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force for “reunification”. According to the report, China is working on “brute force” military options, which could include strikes within 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles of Chinese shores, capable of “seriously challenging and disrupting the U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region.”

The document is being released less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, which limits both sides to deploying 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads in 700 delivery systems. The treaty was extended for five years in February 2021 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, with no provision for a new extension, intensifying experts’ fears of a trilateral nuclear arms race. “More nuclear weapons and an absence of diplomacy will make no one safer – not China, not Russia, not the United States,” warned Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

Cleansing against corruption

A separate chapter in the report concerns the extensive anti-regime purges launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) being one of the key targets. According to the Pentagon, the purges may affect nuclear readiness in the short term, but “set the stage for long-term improvements” in the armed forces.

Meanwhile, revenues for major Chinese defense industries fell last year as corruption investigations slowed contracts and arms procurement, according to a think tank that tracks armed conflicts.

The report said that, in the past 18 months, at least 26 current and former top executives of state-owned arms companies have been investigated or removed from their positions, with investigations extending from the missile and rocket sector to much of China’s defense industry, including the nuclear and shipbuilding sectors.