Today’s European elections mark the end of a long electoral cycle that has kept the political life of the country busy, but also produced developments. Today’s ballot is the fifth in a year, preceded by the two national elections of 2023 and the two rounds of local elections. In this regard, the government may not change tomorrow, but for the Mansion House it is crucial for ND to move in the region of 33%, as much as it got in the 2019 European elections, so that Mitsotakis can comfortably say that the political mandate for reforms he received a year ago has not been “grayed out”. For the opposition parties, however, the ballot is also existential, as SYRIZA of Mr. Kasselakis will be “burned” if it is not in second place, with a percentage close to that of the national elections to ensure its president time credit, and PASOK has set as a goal the second place, in order to show that in the correlation of forces of the Central Left has the upper hand.

Abstention and indecision

The focus of attention of the Southwest and Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in the finale of the election battle, is the size of the abstention rate, but also the undecideds. These two elements are considered interrelated, as surveys have shown in recent days a low level of interest among citizens for the European ballot, which may increase the abstention rate. It is indicative that in the recent MARC survey for ANT1, the percentage of citizens who do not consider the European elections important increased by 4.5%, while it would be logical that the percentage would decrease as we head towards election Sunday. At the same time, the percentage of undecided citizens remains high, as in all surveys it was between 8-10% at the time of writing. Apart from the fact, as an experienced pollster tells “THEMA”, that many citizens tend to decide at the last minute, as the exit poll analysis of the recent national elections showed, it is estimated that a part of the “mass” of undecideds may eventually…vote beach.

These data are also taken into account by the Mansion House in its final analyses for today. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, however, appears optimistic to his interlocutors, estimating that in the end the result of the Southwest, even in a lower turnout environment, will leave no room for questioning the government’s choices.

According to the latest estimates made at the Maximou Mansion before the finale of the election period, the Southwest appears near the 33% bar, but no one can say with certainty where the ball will land, as the ruling party aspires to draw one point from the pool of undecided voters. At the same time, in the Maximus building they see a “braking” of SYRIZA after the revelations about the assets of Stefanos Kasselakis and a slight decline of the opposition party, with PASOK “pinching” half a point and closing the gap in the battle for second place.

If these numbers are more or less confirmed, Maximou expects that the discussion in tonight’s and tomorrow’s debates will be more about the course of the centre-left and less about the strength of the message received by the government. In the same context, ND estimates that the party will move between 7-8 seats and the big battle on Sunday will be whether to keep the eighth seat in 2019 or whether it will go to a smaller party, due to the dispersion of the vote and the “crowding” of parties around 3%.

The Mitsotakis campaign

Admittedly, Mitsotakis, as the “heavyweight” of the ND, stepped forward and took over the campaign in the last four weeks. He made many tours in areas where there was a need to rally forces and until Friday he addressed the traditional ND electoral audience, the backbone of the party, calling on these voters not to put forward temporary dissatisfactions but to see the big picture and reaffirm the political mandate they gave to the government a year ago.

At the same time, especially in recent days, he also placed particular emphasis on European issues and the importance of developments in the EU for our country, explaining with concrete examples what it means for the Southwest and therefore the government to be strong in European decision-making centres. In addition, in these weeks he has also taken two important European initiatives, with the two letters, one on the accuracy and unfair practices of multinational companies to Mrs. von der Leyen and the other together with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on the need for common European funding for European projects. It should be noted that this initiative already seems to be bearing fruit, as the establishment of a single European defence fund will be included in the draft of the summit on 27 and 28 June in Brussels.

The next day

In any case, and regardless of the result of the European elections tonight, tomorrow the New Democracy will be in government and will have a “clear horizon” of three years ahead of it, as Mr Mitsotakis seems determined to exhaust the second four-year term, while he has already started to make… hints for a third. After the election “break”, however, the government’s daily routine with its day-to-day issues is again in the foreground, while a cabinet meeting is pending.

However, Mitsotakis also has international commitments, as on Wednesday he will be in Jordan for the International Conference on Gaza, while on the 16th he will be in Switzerland for the International Conference on Ukraine.