In the wake of the 2024 US presidential elections, pollsters once again missed the mark in predicting the outcome, as pointed out by the French newspaper Le Figaro. This isn’t the first time, as similar miscalculations occurred in 2016 and 2020.

Despite polls showing tight races between the major candidates—Donald Trump and Kamala Harris—Trump managed to defy expectations, just as he did in previous elections. In 2016 and 2020, political analysts were stunned when Trump, who was seen as less favored, secured key victories. The polls had underestimated the support for Trump, overestimating the “blue wave” (Democratic support). In 2024, a similar trend appeared, where polling predictions indicated a close race, but pollsters were more cautious, with a slight edge given to Harris.

As in 2016 and 2020, the key battleground states, often referred to as “swing states,” played a pivotal role in determining the outcome. These states, where voting trends can shift from one election to another, were crucial in the 2024 results. According to poll averages from sources like Real Clear Politics and Fivethirtyeight, Trump was leading in several of these states, though the margins were narrow, raising the possibility of another upset.

Historically, the swing states—such as Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania—have been where elections can be won or lost. Le Figaro analyzed how polling failures in the past have led to unexpected outcomes, such as Trump’s victory in 2016 and Biden’s narrower-than-expected win in 2020.

Despite these polling missteps, the results will ultimately depend on the Electoral College, where candidates need 270 votes to win. The final tally in these critical states, along with the overall national vote, will determine who takes the White House.

For more detailed insights and comparisons of polling predictions versus actual results, refer to Le Figaro‘s analysis of the 2024 election outcomes.