Just hours before Donald Trump‘s “retaliatory” tariffs go into effect, the US president seems trapped in a dangerous geo-economic “chicken game” with the global economy…as his opponent. As markets falter and Allies haggle over a better deal (China is the exception, declaring itself ready for a head-on confrontation), Trump persists: “We only have one chance to get it right.”

As the clock counts down, countries labeled by Trump as “worst offenders” are rushing to throw bridges to Washington to avoid economic collapse.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the first world leader to visit Trump since the tariff announcements, said Monday that Israel would lift trade barriers and eliminate its trade surplus with the US. “We think it’s the right thing to do,” he said, adding that “Israel can be a model for many other countries.”

Japan is in the same vein, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba contacting Trump on the issue and Finance Minister Scott Besed saying they are starting negotiations “to realize the president’s vision of a new Golden Age of Global Trade.”

Even the European Union has put its cards on the table. Ursula von der Leyen offered reciprocal tariff elimination on industrial goods – a proposal Trump praised but deemed “inadequate.”

China, however, is moving in a completely different direction: reaction and escalation. Monday morning, Beijing responded to Trump’s 34% tariffs with a corresponding 34% increase, leading the US president to threaten a new package of additional tariffs of up to 50% if there is no backtracking.

Tough poker with no concessions

“China has chosen isolation,” Scott Besent told X, arguing that “over 50 countries have already responded positively to Trump’s action for a fairer, more prosperous global trading system.”

China’s response was direct and clear: “We have repeatedly stressed that pressure and threats are not the right way to talk to us,” Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Penghu said.

At the same time, the markets were “sinking”: last week, key US indices recorded double-digit declines, while Monday was marked by panic and misinformation: a post that was misinterpreted as Trump’s intention to delay the implementation of tariffs by 90 days led the S&P 500 to rise $2.4 trillion in 10 minutes, only to all be lost, again, when the White House denied the scenario.

Trump himself was unequivocal: “We are not considering any postponement. We are proceeding as normal. We only have one shot in that direction,” he made clear on Monday.

Is there a plan behind the chaos?

As Trump pulls the rope, politicians and economists are asking: is this a negotiating ploy or a long-term plan to permanently restructure global trade?

Trump adviser Peter Navarro put it bluntly via an article in the Financial Times: ‘This is not a negotiation. Leaders who are now offering to cut tariffs after decades of deception should know: we are only at the beginning.”

The theory of Trump’s secret plan

One of the theories circulating involves an informal agreement between Trump and his top advisers – the so-called “Mar-a-Lago accord” – aimed at pressuring US trading partners to weaken the dollar. A cheaper dollar would boost U.S. exports and reduce the value of China’s huge dollar reserves.

Adviser Stephen Miran, to whom the plan is attributed, has officially denied it is government policy, but the scenario remains.

And it’s just one of many possible explanations for the chaos in the markets. White House officials insist on sending conflicting messages: sometimes presenting the tariffs as a permanent mechanism to protect U.S. industry and sometimes as a temporary lobbying tool for new bilateral deals.

And as America heads towards “ground zero” on tariffs on Wednesday, everyone – investors, leaders and citizens alike – is wondering: Is this just a bluff or the beginning of a new economic era?