Hello there, the first day back to school yesterday (Maximos Mansion) went pretty much as it always does at the blessing ceremony, that is, with smiles and joy. They exchanged impressions from summer holidays, comments on current affairs, and at some point someone casually asked K.M. “if the issue of changing the electoral law is on the table” and he replied: “I read that in Proto Thema myself.” Now of course, as you understand, I asked what tone Mitsotakis had when claiming ignorance about the electoral law change, and I got a broad smile from my source, who was an eyewitness to the question posed to the Prime Minister during yesterday’s morning coffee at the Maximos Mansion. Then I asked another very good source of mine what’s really going on and he told me: “Listen, the president is not… there, he doesn’t want electoral law changes. I give it a 10% chance he’ll do it, but if he does, it will be about a seat bonus depending on the percentage gap between first and second party, maybe even between second and third. What definitely won’t happen is raising the threshold to 5% (from 3% today) to enter Parliament. Why unite the small ones, instead of letting them keep fighting each other?” the man told me, and I find that logical.

Thessaloniki Fair via WhatsApp

• Let’s move on to the main course of the day – and of the next two weeks – which is the Thessaloniki International Fair, the government’s economic package. Well, everyone is looking for when meetings will be held to discuss the measures, make final decisions, etc. Seems like… we’re ignoring technology, since the consultation is ongoing: a WhatsApp group has been created with Pierrakakis and Petralias at the Finance Ministry on one side sending “material” daily, and on the other side Mitsotakis, Hatzidakis, and the PM’s economic adviser Argyrou (not Argyros, eh?) at Maximos Mansion, exchanging ideas. I hear they’re almost ready.

VAT kaput in construction

• Hot off the press, I was told yesterday that K.M. will announce yet another extension of the suspension of VAT in construction. Otherwise, a few more minor measures are being tossed around, but as we said, the basic idea “down with direct taxes” is locked in, with final touches being added. The reductions in direct taxation together with tax relief per child will eat up €1.2 billion of the €1.5 billion the State has available.

Meetings on Thessaloniki

• Yesterday at Maximos Mansion, meetings also began about Mitsotakis’ upcoming visit to the city this Thursday, with an emphasis on major infrastructure projects. In the afternoon, I hear there was a large meeting (Dimas and others) on the city’s infrastructure, focusing on three main projects: the metro extension towards Kalamaria (completion by March), the Flyover (by the end of spring 2027), and the Western Thessaloniki Suburban Railway. So I imagine we’ll hear some more concrete things from the Prime Minister. Gradually, ND’s party machine is also preparing both for Mitsotakis’ arrival and for the tours by party officials next week ahead of the Thessaloniki Fair. This afternoon, a broad meeting is scheduled at ND’s Coordinating Committee in Thessaloniki, with the participation of Secretary Kostas Skrekas, the party’s General Manager Giannis Smyrlis, and K.M.’s adviser for party affairs Thanasis Nezis.

The Libyans are coming

• After some time, Athens is ramping up significant activity on the Libya front, where the Turks also aspire to play a bigger role. I hear there will be follow-up on the matter, since in the next few weeks, and certainly by mid-September, representatives will be arriving in Athens both from the Tripoli government and from Benghazi (Haftar) – obviously separately – to meet with Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis.

New entry for Secretary

• Yesterday’s note about the new parliamentary group secretary of ND sparked quite a bit of talk. Zetta Makri seems reluctant, and in the same category are Giorgos Stylios and Notis Mitarakis. The case of Zoi Rapti is indeed “in play” and has serious supporters, while some say Stelios Petsas would also be interested, as he wants to make a comeback to the “front window.”

Inter-ministerial meeting for Chios

• Over the summer, Chios burned twice, and the damage to the island was significant. To make a restart soon, fix what can be fixed, and support the local economy, today at noon a broad inter-ministerial meeting will take place at the Bodossakis Mansion, chaired by Deputy PM Hatzidakis. Beyond the local MP Mitarakis, participants include Livanios, Papastavrou, Tsiaras, Petralias, Katsafados, and others. A Chios Pass scenario will be studied, modeled after Evia and Evros, while there’s also serious discussion with a systemic bank to take on reforestation.

Head of OPEKEPE

• Giannis Kavvadas, senior AADE official, General Director of Financial and Technical Services of AADE, takes over as head of OPEKEPE. Kavvadas will hold both positions, and of course he takes over now at the tough time due to his great experience, I’m told.

Pavlos vs. Syriza

• And one question before I wrap up politics: Why did Syriza call government spokesman Marinakis toxic, when all he did was remind people that under their watch, lifers were being released from prison one after the other? When someone wants to come back, they should also expect the corresponding reminder of their record. As we said, Koumoundourou lives with Tsipras-anxiety.

Mega deal in cold cuts: Nikas passes into Yfantis’ hands

• It’s official: the cold cuts industry NIKAS passes under YFANTIS’ control. According to information, Spyros Theodoropoulos and Alexis Yfantis have reached an agreement, a deal exceeding €65 million. The deal between the two business groups is expected not to face hurdles at the Competition Commission, since private label products now account for 40% of the cold cuts market. With this acquisition, Yfantis strengthens its leading position in a market that has been consolidating in recent years, while Bespoke disengages from a troubled activity since, despite efforts, Nikas could not return to a healthy and sustainable growth and profitability path. Nikas’ turnover in 2024 was €74 million compared to €103 million in 2023, the drop mainly due to the transfer of AMBROSIA S.A. product sales to organized retail, which in 2023 was handled by Nikas but from January 1, 2024 is directly handled by AMBROSIA S.A. The choice to focus on higher-yield codes and cooperation with Bespoke Services for retail ordering led to significant synergies, allowing the company to return to positive operating EBITDA of €450k, overturning last year’s negative result. It should be noted that before summer the previous Nikas management had stepped down, signaling changes to come.

Top-level meeting today at Bank of Greece on securitizations

• All eyes today are on the Bank of Greece, where Governor G. Stournaras will chair a broad meeting on the course of securitizations guaranteed by the “Hercules” scheme. The course of securitizations is always monitored and reviewed at regular intervals. However, what makes today’s meeting stand out (besides the fact it’s being held 26/8, i.e. scheduled a week early) is both the wide participation and the top-level representation. Specifically, present will be the government’s financial team as well as bank and servicer CEOs, the head of PDMA, and other officials. The situation is complicated since there’s an almost generalized lag compared to securitization business plans, so the Bank of Greece is rushing to agree on timely institutional framework adjustments where needed, to accelerate loan liquidation procedures. At the same time, court rulings are also pending that complicate things further, so all this will be examined today.

Another 100 mil. (euros) from the banks

• The Ministry of Economy seems to have drawn a consistent strategy for collecting significant sums from the banks. Just like last year, banks will also contribute €100 million this year to the Giannakou program for the establishment of schools in the country.

The reshuffle at Marinopoulos
• Moves, but also… a reshuffle took place in the coffee business arm of the Marinopoulos family, which manages the Starbucks chain in Greece. The extraordinary General Assembly of Marinopoulos Coffee Company S.A., held in July, decided to amend article 1 of its articles of association, from which it follows that the company’s headquarters were moved from the municipality of Glyfada to the municipality of Chalandri, specifically at 70 Pentelis Avenue. At the same General Assembly, however, a new Board of Directors was elected, even though the term of the previous one was not due to expire until July 27, 2026, i.e. in a year. Now, since the Marinopoulos family is also large, what I notice is that the… upper hand was taken by the side of Stefanos Marinopoulos. Thus, the new Board, which has four members compared to the previous three, consists of Stefanos Marinopoulos (son of Ioannis) as President, Panagiotis Marinopoulos (son of Dimitrios) as Vice President, as well as Panagiotis Marinopoulos (son of Ioannis) and Ioannis Marinopoulos (son of Stefanos) as members. The term of the new Board expires on July 14, 2030. The previous Board included Panagiotis Marinopoulos (son of Ioannis) as President, Panagiotis Marinopoulos (son of Dimitrios) as Vice President, and the (now President) Stefanos Marinopoulos (son of Ioannis) as member. It is recalled that according to the latest published financial statements for the 2023 fiscal year, the company increased its sales to €25.83 million, returning to profitability (€429,586) compared to losses (€483,274) the previous year, while on June 30, 2023 it signed a new ten-year franchise agreement with Starbucks. As for the company’s borrowing, which at the end of 2023 amounted to €28.6 million, it was noted that it remains non-performing, with management expressing the view that “a satisfactory cooperation with the three creditor banks will be formed for a reorganization plan for all of the company’s loans, under which an extension could be granted both for repayment and for reducing the size of the margin.”

An Armenian billionaire in Athens
• Immediately after the Thessaloniki International Fair, in mid-September, Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan is expected to come to Greece for business. Today, Karapetyan leads the opposition against the Pashinyan regime, which attempted to nationalize the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA), provoking major reactions in Europe. Samvel Karapetyan managed to defeat the regime and prevent the nationalization, and this gave him the impetus not only for his business activity but also for forming a political opposition movement. He is a businessman of Russo-Armenian descent and president of the “Tashir Group” conglomerate, with significant investments in energy (of course), real estate, and infrastructure both in Russia and Armenia. Karapetyan had come to Greece in July, created an initial business hub, and now is said to have decided to expand his business activities in our country, so that from here he can finance his next political initiatives.

The winners from the MSCI index rebalancing
• It was exactly 1:09 in the afternoon when a large transaction worth €34.59 million took place on the Athens Stock Exchange. 9.8 million shares of Alpha Bank changed hands at the price of €3.53. Eventually, Alpha’s share closed at €3.7790 (+6.21%) with transactions worth – brace yourselves – €189.9 million. From last Thursday’s session, Alpha’s share started from the “low” of €3.416 to reach yesterday’s high of €3.807 and close at a capitalization of €8.748 billion. Alpha Bank’s share proves to be one of the big beneficiaries in the MSCI index rebalancing. The other big winner is Metlen’s stock. Today, London traders opening their terminals in the morning, after a relaxed holiday weekend and yesterday’s break, will see Metlen PLC’s stock at €54.75.

Expectations for an upgrade of the market
• While Europe seems to be floundering between recession and geopolitical insecurity, the General Index of the ASE ignored the negative mood of European stock markets and closed with gains of +0.58% at 2,116.10 points, having moved between 2,106.77 points (+0.13%) and 2,126.99 points (+1.10%). Enthusiasm did not manifest in extreme upward prices, but with a significant increase in the value of transactions at €350.5 million, with €91.9 million in block trades. Alpha Bank together with Piraeus (-1.04% at €7.06) accounted for 67% of trading activity. National Bank (-0.16%) at €12.78, and Eurobank (-1.27%) at €3.41 did not help the General Index. Bank of Cyprus celebrated its entry into the FTSE Russell Large Cap Index with a rise of +2.86% at €7.90 and a trading value of €10.2 million. Lamda (+2.86%) continues to get revenge against its doubters at €7.16, while Aegean reached its historically highest market capitalization at €1.35 billion with a rise of +2.6% (€14.98). In mid-cap, Alumil (+8.17%) at €5.56 and AVAX (+2.15%) at €2.61 stood out, with AVAX recording its 5th consecutive rising session.

The game has (again) begun at Thessaloniki Port
• With transactions of €426,800, the stock of Thessaloniki Port Authority reached €38.8 million yesterday (+4.58%), highlighting the “investment interest” of some who once again want to “gather forces” ahead of a new offer to Ivan Savvidis. Reliable information indicates that the buyer was NOT the bearded businessman, who is once again under pressure to sell his stake, but demands a much higher price. At the same time, work is progressing on the expansion of Pier 6, which will allow the reception of large container ships of up to 24,000 TEU class and, naturally, will upgrade the role and value of Thessaloniki Port.

Swiss Post joins the tariff war
• Switzerland’s postal service is suspending all shipments of goods to the U.S. as of today. This is the first consequence of the emergency tariffs (39% on almost all product categories, making it the highest rate applied in a developed country) imposed by the U.S. government. This historic move by Swiss Post comes in response to the new executive order that suspends the duty-free “de minimis” import threshold of $800 for foreign goods – a rule that had until now allowed the unhindered import of millions of small parcels without additional charges. As of August 29, every imported product in the U.S., regardless of value or country of origin, is subject to tariffs and a new customs declaration procedure. Swiss Post temporarily suspended all international shipments of goods to America, citing total uncertainty about the new customs protocols, declaration procedures, the method of duty payment, and the risk of returns due to non-payment. At the same time, dozens of European postal services (Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Austria, etc.) are taking similar measures, leading to an unprecedented disruption of trade flow between Europe and the U.S. Apart from goods shipments, only letters, books, and gifts worth under $100 will be sent without tariffs.

Trump applies a Memorandum but U.S. debt balloons
• Supposedly, the American President sharply increased tariffs to improve state budget revenues (which indeed rose by +2.5%), is firing public servants, and cutting social spending to bring balance to public finances. But it turns out that the problem of the U.S. budget is not revenue but government spending. In the last 48 days, the U.S. federal debt has increased by $1 trillion – or, if you prefer, $21 billion per day. Government spending today corresponds to about 44% of GDP, i.e. what the U.S. government was spending during World War II or the great crisis of 2008 (Lehman Brothers). U.S. Public Debt is heading towards $38 trillion and the budget deficit stands at $1.63 trillion, or 7.4% of GDP. The PotUS is pressuring the central bank, the FED, to cut dollar interest rates so that refinancing the Debt won’t cost as much. But Trump’s real problem is not so much the cost of refinancing, but the overall real size of U.S. Public Debt and the deficits that keep inflating it.