Hello there, if you look at the “news bulletin” of the day you’ll see a wealth of criminal cases: we’ve got a mafia in Crete with grotesco brushstrokes like that of Panaras which, honestly, belongs in a revue—even though Delfinario isn’t running anymore. One from OPEKEPE with sequels, some gas stations with adulterated fuel, and now another story where public servants, they say, were laundering money through betting companies. Now, you’ll say, is this a situation? But if you put aside, partly, the OPEKEPE case—which was moved by the European prosecutors (and I say partly because the Greek authorities have also dealt with it extensively)—the rest were moved by the government, specifically the Police, to give credit where it’s due, along with the Anti–Money Laundering Authority. Still, the overall news as spectacle is a bit depressing, isn’t it?

OPEKEPE
So, I asked at OPEKEPE whether the scandal is limited to the roughly 1,000 codes that pocketed €22 million, and the answer I got was “a crazy priest baptized you” (but not Melchizedek…). It is officially estimated that out of 650,000 tax IDs, about 90–100,000 wrongly received an average of €30–40,000 each. Nice work, huh? One in six farmers or livestock breeders got a little something extra—yearly—from EU money. Sugar and honey…

Not checking the small fry
I asked if they’ll audit everyone, and my source replied: “Well, those who get €10,000 a year in subsidies, we won’t bother with them.” Of course, after all, the country has a culture of EU dips.

Fewer applications, more animals
I also gather that some at OPEKEPE continue to pull tricks. For example, I hear that although applications closed a few days ago and were fewer by several tens of thousands, the animals declared in the system are more. How this multiplication is explained—only those who filed the applications understand.

Cretan mafia (Chania section)
I asked an old hand of the “Cretan nightlife” how big the gang they caught is, and he laughed, “Well, it’s not exactly Champions League, just a typical (criminal, he meant) outfit of Chania.” We’ve got such ones in every prefecture of Crete, thank God we’re not short.

Pink video with archimandrite
I asked if there’s anything juicy, because I hear a lot, besides Panos (and I repeat, the man knows Kimberly about as much as I know Trump). They had some pink gay videos with which they were blackmailing an archimandrite—or some priest, anyway—but prosecutors didn’t put them in the case file, I was told. Nothing original there, to be honest.

First Thessaloniki Fair, then secretary
Today Mitsotakis has left his schedule blank, preparing mainly for the press conference and the many questions he’ll get. That’s why, I hear, he postponed for a few days the decision on the parliamentary group secretary of New Democracy, as he hasn’t made up his mind yet.

Saint Catherine
The visit of the general secretary for Religious Affairs, Giorgos Kalantzis, to the Monastery of Sinai was traumatic, as Archbishop Damianos torpedoed the budding agreement to begin succession procedures and restore normality in the monastery. I even hear of a monumental line with which he overturned the framework of the agreement: “Saint Catherine brought me here, Saint Catherine will take me,” he said. God help us!

KYSOIP
Yesterday, the Government Council for Economic Policy (KYSOIP) met under the chairmanship of Mitsotakis, on the topic of the “National Strategy for Extroversion.” The subject may not grab public interest, but it is important for the Greek economy. Because the increase of our exports is the prerequisite to maintain high growth rates. And as the Prime Minister said, the goal is for our exports to reach 50% of GDP by 2027. As Vice President Hatzidakis, who coordinates the economic cycle, puts it, the government is increasingly focusing on the so-called microeconomic issues (exports, infrastructure, business environment, etc.) given that the macroeconomic figures (debt, deficit, etc.) are now in order. Thus, in its 4th meeting since April when it was essentially reconstituted, KYSOIP has dealt successively with networks (infrastructure, energy, telecommunications), simplifying business licensing, and exports. And the assessment within the government is that KYSOIP contributes to better coordination among ministries and more effective promotion of the government’s work.

Rebranding and oligarchs
Now, the Maximos Mansion through Kammenos, who popped up babbling as usual (and he himself admitted that he lied to the little gangster of Crete, said nothing about the bishop), seized the chance to hit Tsipras. Pavlos Marinakis called him out straight, and of course he wouldn’t let him off, since he saddled him with his ANEL partner in government. But I want to stop at a post yesterday by our leader Alexis, who passionately wrote that “we need a new patriotism against oligarchy and kleptocracy. On one side is our homeland, on the other their riches.” Very nice, Tsipras, but since in Greece we’re few and known—a village, as they say—I’ll respect him if he names even one oligarch or kleptocrat. Just one, for God’s sake, not many. But not like little green Nikolas who roared like a lion on the same issue and then, instead of oligarchs, named the banks and the employees of Prem Watsa, the Italians, and Mylonas of the National Bank.

Why the regulation on Swiss franc loans was postponed
And now I move on to market news, starting with the regulation on Swiss franc loans. Although the regulation has been prepared for several weeks, as we recently said, we won’t hear it at the Thessaloniki Fair. The reason for the delay of the announcements is of interest. This regulation is not simple. Someone has to slalom through a legal, technical, and financial maze. The solution initially agreed with the banks has been put on ice and is under revision, because the Ministry of Economy realized it essentially benefits only 10% of borrowers and therefore does not meet the government’s goal of helping this particular borrower group. So now, efforts begin for a more effective and substantial solution, and the Ministry of Finance estimates it will be ready by the end of the year.

The funds that are taking Greece to court over the warrants
Last May, the PDMA (Public Debt Management Agency) made a precautionary move by buying back the GDP-linked warrants (tradable performance rights) that had been given to bondholders during the PSI in 2012. A very correct and necessary move to reduce future burdens on Greek debt, since their activation (they had been given to those who accepted the “haircut”) would have added an extra €500–600 million annually in interest for almost two decades. They would kick in if GDP growth was above 2% and total GDP exceeded €266 billion. But here’s where the trouble began: Wilmington Trust, which acted as trustee for these warrants, is now demanding compensation from the Greek government for the buyback. Wilmington Trust disputes the validity of the call option exercised by Greece to avoid paying the €500–600 million a year. The dispute actually began last April, when the law firm White & Case sent a letter on behalf of a group of hedge funds and asset managers challenging both the validity of the call option and its strike price as exercised by the Hellenic Republic. That group of funds includes VR Capital, Wellington Management, Pharo Management, Gemstock Limited, and Karrick Limited. The case will obviously end up in court, and the question now is: what do the investment banks that advised the PDMA on handling this have to say?

Praise from the oilmen for Chrysochoidis
I mentioned earlier the abundance of criminal cases in the news, and I’ll add that Motor Oil, Hellenic Energy, and the oil sector in general have been raising their glasses to Michalis Chrysochoidis since yesterday, expressing satisfaction with the recent successes of the Hellenic Police in cracking down on fuel adulteration. The Minister of Public Order reaps the political benefits, since the police uncovered yet another major organized crime case. The latest success concerns a ring operating in Sindos. Its members imported solvents from Bulgaria and Romania, which they used to adulterate fuel. These products ended up at gas stations belonging to the criminal network, generating huge illegal profits. As a senior refinery executive noted, the existence of the ring was common knowledge in the sector, but there were no names or hard evidence until the police investigation brought them to light. He added that several companies have asked the Independent Authority for Public Revenue to strictly enforce the law, which mandates stripping logos and operating licenses from offending gas stations for two years. However, so far, gas station owners caught breaking the law have found ways around it: they shut down for a short period and then re-enter the market with a new tax ID. Within oil companies, there’s even talk of publicly naming the brands involved in violations. But the idea faces strong pushback, raising concerns about consumer trust and corporate reputations overall. Notably, two gas stations belonging to a large and highly reputable company were recently caught breaking the law. That confirms these practices aren’t confined to small or marginal market players—they can also pop up within organized, respectable businesses.

National Securities
An upgrade to its systems created headaches at National Securities, with some clients experiencing mismatched balances and insufficient funds for trades. The brokerage quickly took corrective action to resolve the issues and restore smooth system operations.

What is Odysseas Athanasiou cooking up?
At the moment, Lamda’s management is holding dozens of meetings, sessions, and presentations with investors. Officially, lips are sealed about the goal of these preparations. But market chatter suggests that Lamda’s next deal might involve its malls. A transaction—say, selling a stake in Lamda Malls—would showcase their real market value without having to (for now) go through the Athens Stock Exchange, where valuation would inevitably come with a discount. It looks like announcements won’t be long in coming.

Trade Estates: Autohellas at 12.88%, Latsco Hellenic Holding at 8.11%
The second largest shareholder in Trade Estates, behind the Fourlis family, is now Autohellas, with a 12.88% stake. Meanwhile, Latsco Hellenic Holding held 8.11% at the end of last June, based on the company’s financial statements. About six months ago, a placement took place for 16% of the listed company, reducing the Fourlis Group’s stake to around 47%. Trade Estates, the real estate investment arm of Fourlis Holdings, which posted strong performance in the first half of the year, is rolling out a major 4-year investment plan. It includes creating new retail parks in Greece, led by the one in The Ellinikon Park, as well as new logistics centers. The most important of these is InterIKEA’s new International Distribution Center in Aspropyrgos, which will serve IKEA product distribution across the central and eastern Mediterranean. The €70 million investment is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.

The (new) golden deal of George Economou
George Economou is back at the center of shipping developments, with recent moves by TMS Group strengthening his foothold in the containership market. After Idan Ofer’s Kenon Holdings pulled out of the deal with Zim, the Israeli company chose instead to charter all ten vessels from Economou’s group. The deal covers 10 LNG dual-fuel containerships with a capacity of 11,500 TEU, under construction in Zhoushan Changhong Shipyard, China, with deliveries expected in 2027 and 2028. The total order is valued at $2.3 billion, while Zim will charter them for 12 years with a purchase option at the end. TMS had initially ordered six ships with an option for four more—a move that proved decisive after Ofer’s withdrawal. As a result, the collaboration with Zim expanded, strengthening TMS’s strategic position in containerships and opening a new chapter in its relationship with the Israeli group.

What’s being discussed in Piraeus? U.S. sanctions on a Greek shipbroker
The case of shipbroker Antonis Margaritis continues to stir the shipping and political backchannels. The Marshall Islands registry canceled the registrations of five companies linked to the Greek broker on the same day the U.S. sanctions were announced against him. Among them was Marant Shipping & Trading, the Athens-based office he founded about ten years ago. I hear that the U.S. Embassy in Athens also investigated Margaritis’s career on Washington’s orders, to map out his business dealings. This development follows the unprecedented decision of the U.S. Treasury to impose sanctions primarily on a shipbroker, in the context of investigating Iranian oil transport cases. Behind the scenes, the case raises questions about the scope of Margaritis’s network and the possible impact on collaborations or contracts with other shipping players. The involvement of multiple companies in the same web reinforces the picture of a serious blow to his activities.

Quest Group is raising cash
Three months ago, Quest Holdings’ share was trading at an all-time high of €7.89. Today—after paying a €0.30 dividend—it’s at €7.49, with a market cap just under €800 million. In early August, the company announced the sale of a large chunk of its solar park portfolio, raising €36 million. A month from now, GLS Group will be able to exercise its option to buy the remaining 80% of ACS, which, if carried out, will bring Quest major capital gains and liquidity. With that cash, Quest will move on to its next acquisitions in tech and commerce, building on Unisystems and Benroubi, which it bought last spring. Despite the turmoil in mid-cap stocks, Quest seems to be holding both its ground (and its cash).

OPAP: Investors in defensive mode ahead of conference call
OPAP closed well off its intraday highs yesterday, as investors took a defensive stance ahead of the conference call on the group’s results. The stock gained 0.68%, closing at €19.22, though it touched €19.56 at one point, which would have meant a 2.5% rise if it had closed there. This gave portfolios breathing space to reposition after the half-year results presentation. The group posted growth of 6.5% in gross gaming revenue, 6.6% in EBITDA, and 6.3% in net profits—showing solid reserves of strength despite what CEO Jan Karas described as a tough comparison base for sports betting versus last year, due to Euro 2024. A decisive boost came from Joker, thanks to successive rollovers that last month produced the biggest jackpot in the game’s history, over €28.8 million. Also confirmed was an interim dividend of €0.50 per share (€0.475 net) for this fiscal year, totaling around €179.3 million. The ex-dividend date is November 3, with payment starting November 10. As for the stock’s trajectory, OPAP is up 22.4% so far this year, with a market cap of €7.11 billion—just 7% below its yearly high of €20.66.

The reaction of the oppressed
The banks led the stock market into correction, the banks held the General Index above 2,000 points, and yesterday the banks pushed it up to 2,032.17 points, a +1.51% gain. All this with relatively low trading volume (€169.06 million, €19.5 million in block trades)—which is both good and bad news. Good, because there wasn’t heavy selling at higher index levels. Bad, because there wasn’t strong buying appetite to push higher. NBG was once again the star, with €32.6 million in trades and a +3.3% jump to €12.47. Eurobank followed (+2.56%) at €3.24, Alpha (+2.45%) at €3.47 got its revenge on those who dumped it the day before yesterday, and Piraeus (+1.74%) at €6.76 had half the turnover of NBG. PPC (+2.32%) bounced strongly from the recent downturn, hitting €14.14, while TITAN (+2.07%) at €37.05 also contributed to the General Index’s rise. Big comeback too for Aegean (+1.75%) at €13.92 and Cenergy (+2.49%) at €10.72. Lots of trading and a positive close for AKTOR (+1.17%), which reports half-year results today. In mid and small caps, trading wasn’t remarkable—worth noting only ADMIE’s -0.9%, against the backdrop of the ongoing Cyprus–Crete interconnection saga.

When politics meddles with interest rates
All signs point to the Fed leadership caving to heavy pressure from the U.S. President and cutting dollar interest rates on September 17, under the pretext of labor market weakness. Analysts are nearly certain of a 25 basis point cut. But in the U.S. bond market, deep imbalances are obvious between monetary policy, fiscal management, and investor sentiment. Yields on 30-year Treasuries are hitting 5%—levels reminiscent of the 2008 shock—even as markets expect Fed rate cuts. Not irrational: U.S. core inflation is back above 3% and rising, crushing hopes of market stabilization. The U.S. government is issuing massive amounts of debt, over $200 billion in just weeks. The market is scared, pricing in the possibility of persistent fiscal slippage or higher inflation. The “term premium” on bonds has spiked to its highest since 2014. Investors now demand much higher compensation to “lock in” their money in U.S. debt, due to doubts about long-term solvency and stability. The Fed’s monetary “easing” may not be the cure—but the trigger for new, sharper tensions ahead.

Every day gold climbs higher
Before Wall Street even opened yesterday, gold futures had climbed to $3,630 an ounce, up +1% from the day before. That means that since 2023, gold’s price has doubled (+100%), while stocks—despite the “AI revolution” and the tech giants’ records—have gained +67% in the same period. It’s one of the rare times in stock market history that gold and stocks rise together, and rarer still for gold to outpace stocks. For the first time since 1996, central bank vaults hold more gold than government bonds. In plain terms, the market (and central bankers) expect inflationary uncertainty and fiscal risks—regardless of governments’ growth narratives.