The 2026 tax breaks, the Greek government … will have more tax revenue in 2025! Compared to 2025 receipts, the Draft Budget that Kyriakos Pierrakakis submitted to the Parliament yesterday predicts that for 2026 that from the reductions in ENTIA and income taxes, the public will lose just 176 million euros!

The state’s total tax revenues are even projected to increase by €2.649 billion or 3.7% compared to 2025, as they are expected to reach €73.527 billion.

Based on the draft itself, however, the oxymoron (seemingly at least) is interpreted by the government’s economic staff, mainly, by the further reduction of tax evasion, higher Growth compared to this year and rising incomes and consumption in 2026.

Based on these assumptions, the overall target of the Draft Project envisages that a primary surplus of €7.292 billion will be achieved in 2026, reaching 2.8% of GDP, but in a year where, the same budget will give tax cuts and new benefits, the total cost of which will amount to 1.76 billion euros.

But the same phenomenon is observed this year: in fact, in 2025, the primary surplus is expected to be even larger (3.6% of GDP), mainly due to an excess of 1.675 billion euros (or 2.4%) in state budget revenues from taxes over the target set last year in the 2025 budget. This is despite the fact that, in the middle of the year, 1.5 billion euros in extra benefits and 1.2 billion euros in tax cuts were announced, which were not foreseen when the budget was passed last year in December.

As the Preliminary Draft of the new budget shows, the surplus and revenue overruns despite the reductions are attributed to:

(a) The reduction of tax evasion, combined with the increase in electronic transactions, which mainly affects VAT revenues (an increase of €857 million in 2025 compared to the budget)

(b) The increase in fees, which mainly affects personal income tax revenues (an increase of EUR 633 million compared to the budget). It should be noted that compared to the budget projections, there is a significant increase in wages for dependent labour, estimated at 6.3% in 2025 compared to 3.4%, which was the relevant forecast.

c) persistent inflation, but also the growth of real private consumption, which – despite the accuracy – is expected to reach 1.9% in 2025, against a forecast of 1.6%. Contributing to this are tourism receipts, which rose significantly by 12.5% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to 2024, resulting in a positive impact on tax revenues.

What the 2026… “bill” predicts

With this data, however, the finance ministry has forecast continued revenue growth in 2026, mainly from VAT and taxes on corporate profits.

Specifically, in more detail, according to the draft of the new state budget:

1) Taxes on goods and services: Revenues from taxes on goods and services are projected to increase by EUR 1.747 billion or 4.5% compared to 2025, reaching EUR 40.818 billion.

In particular:

— VAT revenues are expected to reach 29.129 billion euros, up 1.599 billion euros compared to this year. This increase is linked to ongoing measures against VAT evasion, projected growth in private consumption and in 2026 of 1.7%, but – to a lesser extent than in 2025 – relatively stubborn inflation, which is projected to fall to 2.2% in 2026, from 2.6% this year.

–tax revenues are projected at €7.447 billion, up marginally by €53 million compared to 2025. As Excise Taxes are imposed on the volume of sales regardless of the price level, this very small increase, however, indicates a restraint in consumption at this year’s levels, with regard to beverages, cigarettes, fuels and energy on which excise taxes are imposed.

2) Taxes and duties on imports: from taxes and duties on imports, revenues of €427 million are foreseen, up slightly by €27 million compared to this year.

3)Real estate taxes – ENFIA: due to the 50% reduction (until the final abolition) of ENFIA in more than 12,000 settlements in the country, revenues from regular real estate taxes are expected to decrease by EUR 83 million compared to 2025. They will not exceed a total of EUR 2.328 billion.

4) Other taxes on production: revenues of EUR 659 million are projected from other taxes on production, up by EUR 164 million compared to the 2025 estimate, mainly due to the provision for the collection of EUR 200 million from the Greek State’s participation in the profits of the Hellenic Central Bank.

5)Income tax: the changes in the tax scale lead to tax reductions of EUR 1.218 billion for households – individuals. Despite this reduction, however, in 2026, personal income tax revenues are projected to fall by only 93 (!) million euros compared to 2025. This is attributed to the projected increase in wages for dependent work, pensions and the expected new increase in the minimum wage.

However, total tax revenues are expected to increase by EUR 742 million or 2.9% compared to 2025, amounting to EUR 26.710 billion, due to the increase in income tax revenues from legal entities (companies) projected to amount to EUR 8.659 billion, up EUR 859 million compared to 2025, due to the estimated increased profits of companies in the current tax year, which will be declared in 2026.

6) Capital Taxes: are projected to be 250 million euros, with no change compared to 2025.

7) Other current taxes: expected to amount to €2.334 billion, up €52 million compared to 2025.

8) Social contributions: social contribution revenues are projected to amount to EUR 61 million, with no change compared to 2025.

9) Transfers from EU: transfer revenues are expected to amount to EUR 10.941 billion, up EUR 1.695 billion compared to 2025, mainly due to an increase in revenue from the CDF of EUR 1.657 billion, after ESA adjustment.

10) Sales of goods and services: revenues of EUR 1.097 billion are projected, down by EUR 116 million compared to 2025.

11)Other current revenue: Other current revenue is projected at €2.222 billion, down €769 million compared to 2025, mainly due to a €114 million decrease in revenue from dividends from public sector entities. EUR 114 million, the negative impact of EUR 305 million in advances from European programmes, EUR 95 million in reduced reimbursements from NPAs for the execution of investment projects and EUR 194 million in reduced interest on deposits received by the Greek State.

12) Sales of fixed assets: Revenues from sales of fixed assets are projected to be EUR 55 million, up EUR 24 million compared to this year.

Four percent more than in the previous year, up from 24% in 2007.

Four times more than in the previous year, compared to the previous year.