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Security guarantees modeled on NATO’s collective defense: Inside the 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine — Axios Report

A second draft agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine—focused on security guarantees—has been prepared, according to a new Axios report published just hours after details leaked of President Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war in Ukraine

Newsroom November 21 09:25

Axios says the draft outlines security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5, which would bind the U.S. and European allies to treat any attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire “transatlantic community.”

The document states that any future “significant, intentional, and prolonged armed assault” by Russia beyond the agreed ceasefire line in Ukrainian territory “will be considered an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.” In such a case, the U.S. and its allies would respond accordingly—potentially including military force.

The framework has already been shaped as a multilateral agreement bearing the signatures of Ukraine, the U.S., the EU, NATO, and Russia. A senior White House official noted that Moscow has been informed of the draft, though it remains unclear whether Vladimir Putin’s signature will ultimately be required. The initial duration of the security guarantee would be ten years, renewable by mutual consent.

Two sources—including a senior White House official and another with direct knowledge—confirmed the document’s authenticity, adding that the proposal must still be discussed with European partners and may undergo changes. According to Axios, the Trump administration views the proposed security guarantee as a “major win” for President Zelensky and for Ukraine’s long-term security.

However, the proposal could force Zelensky to concede even more territory than Russia currently controls.

Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff—responsible for drafting the 28-point plan—discussed the proposal last weekend with Zelensky’s national security adviser, Rustem Umerov. The document was then delivered to the Ukrainian president on Thursday, U.S. officials say.

Axios notes that the plan may trigger backlash among supporters of the “America First” doctrine, as it would effectively commit U.S. forces to defending Ukraine in the event of renewed conflict.

The Text of the Framework Revealed by Axios

The framework sets the terms for a ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and establishes security guarantees based on NATO’s Article 5 principles, adapted to the realities of the current conflict and the interests of the United States and its European partners.

The United States affirms that any significant, intentional, and prolonged armed attack by Russia beyond the agreed ceasefire line on Ukrainian territory will be considered an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community. In such a case, the U.S. president—using constitutional authority and after consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and European partners—will determine the necessary measures to restore security. These may include armed force, intelligence and logistical support, economic and diplomatic actions, or other appropriate steps. A joint assessment mechanism with NATO and Ukraine will evaluate alleged violations.

NATO members—including France, the UK, Germany, Poland, and Finland—affirm that Ukraine’s security is integral to European stability and pledge to act jointly with the U.S. in response to any qualifying violation, ensuring a unified and credible deterrent posture.

The framework takes effect upon signature and remains valid for ten years, with the possibility of renewal. A joint monitoring committee led by European partners and including the U.S. will oversee compliance.

Signatories:
Ukraine
Russian Federation
United States of America
European Union
NATO

Point-by-Point: The U.S. Plan to End the War — Crimea and All of Donbas Go to Russia

Yesterday, the full set of points from the American proposal for ending the war leaked via Nexta, citing Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko.

According to the leaked documents, the proposed ceasefire framework includes a series of strategic agreements touching on territorial, military, and economic matters. The plan aims both to restore peace in the region and to rebuild Ukraine while reintegrating Russia into the international system.

The Financial Times reported earlier that Washington is pushing President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign the agreement by November 27—the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Key Elements of the Agreement

Territorial Issues

  • Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk (Donbas) are recognized de facto as part of Russia.
  • Kherson and Zaporizhzhia remain in a “frozen” status.
  • Certain territories become demilitarized security zones under de facto Russian control.
  • Both sides commit not to alter borders by force.

Military Provisions

  • NATO will not deploy troops to Ukraine.
  • NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
  • A U.S.–NATO–Russia security dialogue is established, including a U.S.–Russia working group.
  • Russia legally commits to a non-aggression policy toward Ukraine and Europe.

Economic Measures and Reconstruction

  • The U.S. and Europe launch a major investment package for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
  • USD $100 billion in frozen Russian assets is allocated to rebuilding Ukraine, with the U.S. receiving 50% of the returns.
  • Europe contributes an additional $100 billion.
  • Other frozen Russian assets fund joint U.S.–Russia projects.
  • A Ukraine Development Fund is created to support infrastructure, resources, and technology.

For Russia

  • Gradual lifting of sanctions.
  • Return to the G8.
  • Long-term U.S.–Russian economic cooperation.

Energy & Infrastructure

  • The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant operates under IAEA supervision, with energy output split 50–50 between Ukraine and Russia.
  • The U.S. assists in restoring Ukraine’s gas infrastructure.

Implementation & Oversight

  • The agreement is legally binding.
  • Oversight is handled by a “Peace Council” chaired by Donald Trump.
  • Violations trigger sanctions.
  • A ceasefire takes effect immediately upon signature, with forces withdrawing to agreed positions.

What Each Side Gains and Loses

Ukraine

  • Permanently outside NATO, with this requirement codified into its Constitution.
  • Reduced armed forces with no nuclear status.
  • Conditional security guarantees from the U.S.

Territorial Losses

  • Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk recognized as Russian.
  • Kherson and Zaporizhzhia frozen along current front lines—effectively new territorial losses.
  • Creation of a de facto Russian-controlled demilitarized security zone.

Russia

  • Legal non-aggression commitments.
  • Gradual return to the G8.
  • Step-by-step lifting of sanctions.

Ukraine’s “Gains”

  • $200 billion for reconstruction (including $100 billion in frozen Russian assets).
  • Reopening of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant under IAEA oversight with shared energy output.
  • Major U.S. and EU investments, plus a Development Fund.

Additional provisions:

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  • Prisoner exchanges and return of abducted children.
  • Ukrainian elections 100 days after signing.
  • Full amnesty for all participants in the war.

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