Hello, sometimes the information I have is not completely fresh—what we call “fish of the day”—but I think it is always reliable. So I’m passing on to you a poll that was obviously not published, because it contained “over-the-limit” figures and voting intention for Karystianou as well as for Tsipras, who, as is well known, have not yet announced parties, so formally this is not customary. However, the question was asked for substantive reasons and was phrased something like this: “If Tsipras or (and) Karystianou were to announce a party, what would you vote for?” So, ND does not appear to be affected (it is where it is in other polls, at 29.5%–30%), but President Maria shoots up to 15%, our beloved Alexis to 10%, and PASOK falls to 9%, while Zoe along with Velopoulos is at 7%. Let me clarify that the same polling company, before this hypothetical question about a Tsipras and Karystianou party, also conducted a poll without the addition of the two new players, which produced the same results as MRB’s—namely ND first, Zoe second, and PASOK third. I also asked my source whether, when the poll with this “toxic” hypothetical question about President Maria K. and Tsipras was conducted, Karystianou’s position on abortions had been taken into account. The answer I received was that when the survey was completed, Karystianou had not yet made her anti-abortion statement, but I was assured that it does not play such a big role in public opinion anyway. Now, they also told me about another important finding: half of those who would vote for Tsipras might also vote for Karystianou, and one third of those who would vote for Maria K. could also go with Alexis. A real mess, right? You understand what is going to happen on the political scene as soon as these two parties appear on the stage. Finally, I asked whether M.M. is aware of this survey, and they answered “bien sûr,” as the French say—and with great precision, in fact.

Thymios at M.M.
Many were surprised yesterday to see the legendary Thymios Lymperopoulos of the taxi drivers walk through the doors of M.M. with a sheet of demands, and even though he did not have an appointment, he was received by K.M.’s adviser, Thanasis Nezis, who has known him for decades and was the day before yesterday in Kalamata with Samaras and Karamanlis—so he is battle-hardened. I hear that Thymios was very happy that they received him, but at the beginning of the conversation Nezis made it clear to him that “you’re not going to curse Kyranakis to me,” and warned him to leave the… communist stuff aside, which broke the ice. In general, Thymios presented a series of demands, Nezis said he would pass them on to Mitsotakis, but now I don’t believe that Mitsotakis will sit at the same table with Thymios, nor is it really the prime minister’s job. Still, a little “massage” of the Thymioses from time to time doesn’t hurt, since taxis are historically considered “vote multipliers,” although personally I don’t believe that at all. I also hear that by chance at M.M. Thymios saw Giorgos Floridis, who had gone there for another matter, and raised with him the issue of a change made in 2022 to the provisions of the law concerning the criminal record required for a taxi license. The tasty bit is that Floridis and Thymios exchanged phone numbers to talk about it—now what they’ll talk about is another story.

The meeting on the Constitution
Mitsotakis may have opened the discussion on the Constitution and asked ND MPs to formulate their own thoughts by February, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be meetings as well. For example, I hear that Gerapetritis–Koutnatzis and Evripidis Stylianidis (who is heading to be ND’s rapporteur)—that is, the “hard core” of the revision—will have a first discussion tomorrow, Thursday.

After the French, the Americans
Last week, when the French Minister of Defense Ms. Vautrin came to Athens, it was announced that technical talks are moving forward so that in the coming weeks the Greece–France defense agreement will be renewed. This will obviously be signed with the presence of K.M. and Macron. I hear that Dendias is discussing something similar with the Americans; yesterday at the Pentagon he met Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Within the framework of the Greece–U.S. strategic dialogue, the renewal of the bilateral defense cooperation agreement is on the table anyway, while I hear that in the coming days Dendias is also packing his bags for India.

Arm in arm, the outgoing and the incoming
Staying with geopolitics, the Mitsotakis–Erdoğan meeting is “locking in,” logically for next Wednesday the 11th (pending confirmation). A person of mine who was yesterday at M.M. saw at one point Ambassador Nikolaidis, current diplomatic adviser to K.M. and his regular interpreter in meetings with Erdoğan, walking out… arm in arm with our former ambassador to the U.S., Katerina Nasika. What’s the peculiarity? At the end of February, Milton departs for our embassy in Paris, where he succeeds Antonis Alexandridis, who went to Washington in place of Nasika, and Nasika officially takes over as director of K.M.’s diplomatic office. As a result, the “old hand” Nikolaidis will go to Ankara.

Samaras at the Presidential Mansion
The President of the Republic, Kostas Tasoulas, and former prime minister Antonis Samaras spoke again yesterday, Tuesday, by phone in a warm atmosphere, as I learn from a source who knows them both well. They discussed at length the celebration of the Presentation of Christ at the Temple in Kalamata, where, as is known, the two former ND prime ministers—Samaras and Kostas Karamanlis, who was also made an honorary citizen of the city—played leading roles. Samaras told Tasoulas that he intends to remain in Kalamata for a few more days and will most likely return to Athens on Thursday, so the meeting of the two “Averoff brothers” at the Presidential Mansion is expected to take place sometime next week.

Ch. Megalou at Maximos
The CEO of Piraeus Bank, Christos Megalou, visited the Maximos Mansion yesterday. Information indicates that he met with officials from the Prime Minister’s Office, but not with the Prime Minister himself.

The Romanian billionaires of Praktiker got to work
The Romanians of Paval Holdings, owned by Dragos and Adrian Paval—among the wealthiest in their country, with activities in real estate, the automotive industry, energy, manufacturing, etc.—are putting Praktiker in order. After the deal with Fairfax–Eurobank for the acquisition of the well-known home-improvement chain, the investment group, via Dedeman, the leader in Romania’s DIY market, drew up a plan for Praktiker’s transformation. In this context, a €14 million capital increase took place, which had been decided by the company’s shareholders’ general meeting last November. Based on Praktiker Hellas’s most recent financial results, in 2024 the company had pre-tax losses of €1.6 million and its equity had fallen below half of its share capital—hence the capital increase. At the same time, total short-term liabilities exceeded short-term receivables, and the company had secured revolving credit facilities of €30 million. It is recalled that as part of the acquisition, Praktiker Hellas had agreed with Eurobank to acquire all the properties it had previously leased. That’s the financial side; operationally, the reorganization of the chain is moving forward, gradually adopting the Dedeman model and, in the long run, its brand name. Dedeman today has 64 DIY stores in Romania, 5 logistics centers, an owned transport fleet, and more than 13,500 employees, and is one of Romania’s business success stories, having grown from a 16-sq-meter shop into the country’s leading DIY retailer.

RAAEY: The game opens for the vice-president position
After closing the front on selecting the Authority’s president and the vice-president for Water, the Energy sector now takes the baton. According to information, the clock is counting down to the announcement of the vice-president for Energy at RAAEY, as the term of the current vice-president, Dimitris Fourlaris, expires the month after next. This position is considered one of the most critical within the Authority, as it concentrates the main volume of regulatory decisions concerning the electricity and natural gas market. From tariffs and supply rules to interconnections, networks, and major projects, the vice-president for Energy is constantly at the center of political and business pressures. The backstage around the candidacies remains, for now, murky. No public figures have yet emerged declaring an intention to run, while in the market there is a sense that it will be difficult to find a strong outsider with a clean profile and the willingness to take on the risk of the position. The only almost certain thing is that the current vice-president will seek a new term, having the advantage of experience and knowledge of the internal balances. In the background, it is noted that he has been at the center of the most difficult periods of the market in recent years, with his portfolio including a series of issues of high political and regulatory intensity. In any case, it is considered a given that he has experience in the subject matter and knowledge of the Authority’s internal procedures, elements that make him one of the key “players” in the discussion about the next day. Whether this will translate into a second term or whether the government will choose to open the game with new faces will soon become clear and will depend on the broader balances forming in the energy sector.

Barclays is concerned about Athens Airport
Barclays upgraded Fraport’s stock to “Overweight” with a target of €90.50, while maintaining Athens International Airport as “Underweight” with a target of €10.10. Of interest is Barclays analysts’ perspective on European airport infrastructure in 2026. They start with the observation that Fraport, despite its German DNA, draws strength from its Greek portfolio—the 14 regional airports that mainly serve tourist traffic in our country. By contrast, Athens International Airport, although benefiting from strong traffic, faces—according to them—a “regulatory cap” problem. Its regulatory framework limits returns despite a +13.1% increase in traffic. With an EBITDA margin of 58.5% in 2027 and a dividend of 5.9%, AIA’s fundamentals are strong, but the stock has already run above “fair value.” Barclays sees upside for the stock only up to €14.10, while in a downside scenario it goes to €7.30. Fraport, therefore, is considered a “growth story” with additional operational upside, while AIA is seen as a “quality story” with limited upward potential. AIA’s regulatory operating framework ensures stability but traps value creation. All this at a time when the German economy remains weak and Fraport draws its strength from the Greek tourism recovery and from Greek expansions by third companies (e.g., Condor), thus benefiting from rising Mediterranean demand. By contrast, Athens today appears strong and profitable, but with limited benefit for shareholders until the next regulatory review after 2032.

At ADMIE they are waiting for the green light from the Ministry of Energy
The starting signal will be given any moment now. The management of ADMIE Holdings is waiting for the order from the Ministry of Energy to convene its Board of Directors, which will ask the subsidiary to call a general meeting to approve a €1 billion share capital increase. The stock stands steadily above a €705 million market capitalization. The initial intentions of the economic staff—to use the capital increase to open ADMIE’s shareholder base and bring in new foreign investors—gave way to the logic of the status quo: not to change shareholder balances now. The Greek State will put in €251 million; the Chinese State Grid, with 20% of the share capital, will put in €200 million, having officially declared that it will contribute whatever more is needed. ADMIE Holdings’ management, in Paris at an investment day organized by Piraeus Securities, met with investors willing to sign capital commitment letters to participate if required. This whole process is extremely time-consuming. From the moment the order comes from the Ministry of Energy, it will take no less than at least eight months to complete the capital strengthening process that ADMIE so badly needs.

Peter L.’s joint venture
The significance of Global Chartering’s recent move lies not only in the ship or the price, but in the identity of the buyer. It is a joint venture between ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel group, and tycoon Peter Livanos, one of the most experienced names in international shipping. That alone changes the weight of the interpretation. When such a partnership chooses Japanese-built second-hand capesize tonnage, the market does not see it as an opportunistic trade, but as a vertical strategy. The industrial player knows demand from the inside. The shipping player knows the cycle, liquidity, and timing. The combination does not bet on circumstances—it prices them in. In an environment of limited supply of quality second-hand ships and growing uncertainty around newbuildings and regulations, this type of joint venture functions as a “smart market filter” that builds optionality. Wall Street reads these moves with a clear eye. When steel and shipping experience sit at the same table, the bet is not short-term.

Frangou, Milei, and Argentina
In early 2021, Navios South American Logistics, controlled by Angeliki Frangou, filed its first documents for a public offering in New York. However, in November 2024, the company decided to withdraw the registration, leaving open the future of a new IPO in another market. The company, which manages port terminals, tugboats, and ferries in South America, is now carefully examining markets such as São Paulo in Brazil, where capital markets may offer a better valuation than New York. Last year it tapped the Scandinavian market to sell $400 million in bonds at an interest rate of 8.9%, lower than the initial target (9–9.3%). Despite the fact that Navios had until recently avoided major investments in Argentina due to “country risk,” the election of Javier Milei to the presidency appears to have changed the data. The president, known for his unconventional appearances and carefully “theatrical” moves, is pursuing a more pro-business policy, opening new prospects for companies like Navios. Behind the scenes, discussions about a new IPO in markets with higher valuation and cautious financing reveal a company that knows when to move and when to wait.

Greek Shipowners Behind the Scenes of Global Energy
In a period of intense geopolitical realignment and energy uncertainty, Greek-owned shipping is proving that it is not limited merely to transporting cargoes: Greek shipowners are shaping new trade routes and influencing developments in international energy markets. Two recent examples confirm this strategic primacy. First, the Greek-owned suezmax Gloria Maris marked a historic moment by carrying out the first direct seaborne shipment of crude oil from Venezuela to the United States after a multi-year period of sanctions and restricted flows. With a cargo of 1 million barrels of crude destined for the largest offshore oil import terminal in the U.S., LOOP in Louisiana, the vessel highlights the ability of Greek interests to capitalize on political and commercial opportunities where others remain hesitant. At the same time, the Greek-owned aframax Nissos Serifos became the first vessel to load Kazakh crude from the refurbished SPM-3 at the CPC terminal near Novorossiysk in the Black Sea, following the repair of damage caused by attacks. In a region where geopolitical tension and military uncertainty directly affect energy flows, the presence of Greek interests ensures stability and consistency in supply, demonstrating that Greek shipping operates not only as a transporter but as a strategic factor in energy security. The common denominator in both cases is the ability of Greek shipowners to move swiftly, leverage international partnerships, and create trade routes where the global market often hesitates.

ATHEX: Low Bar Set for the Dividend
ATHEX will announce its results on February 18, at a critical juncture marking the end of an era. Optimists are expecting the last large dividend of the outgoing management, the swan song before the Athens Stock Exchange is fully integrated into the Euronext ecosystem. The optimists will likely be disappointed. ATHEX’s revenues will be the best of the past decade; however, the investments required for modernization and a change of operating model will keep the dividend bar low, with the ex-dividend date set for February 23.

Alpha Bank Broke the €10 Billion “Barrier”
Alpha Bank is moving in the “orbit” of JP Morgan. The news that the largest U.S. banking group now controls a potential 7.25% stake in the Greek bank constitutes a resounding vote of confidence. The fact that the Americans chose to “build” such a complex position, with call and put options extending to 2028, shows that they view Alpha Bank as a long-term industrial play rather than a “firework.” The rally triggered by JP Morgan’s entry dovetailed perfectly with the bank’s new market issuance. Bids for the senior preferred bond exceeded €3.5 billion, with Alpha Bank raising €750 million—meaning the issue was oversubscribed by approximately 4.66 times. On the trading floor, Alpha gained 2.3% yesterday, following Monday’s jump of 6.2%, reaching €4.40 and a new high of more than ten years. The next target is €5, a level last seen in early November 2015. At the same time, the bank’s market capitalization broke the €10 billion threshold, entering the club of eleven-digit valuations alongside Coca-Cola HBC, Eurobank, National Bank, and Piraeus Bank.

GEK TERNA–Motor Oil: In the Antechamber of MSCI Greece with New Historic Records
The investment community is focusing on the upcoming MSCI index review on February 10, with attention centered on GEK TERNA and Motor Oil. The two groups are considered the leading candidates for inclusion in the MSCI Greece Standard index, a development that could increase Greek representation from eight to ten stocks, strengthening the weight of the Athens Stock Exchange in international markets. This expectation is already acting as a catalyst for the outperformance of both shares, as index inclusion entails significant capital inflows from institutional portfolios and passive funds during the rebalancing to be completed on February 27. MSCI’s criteria, relating to free float and total market capitalization, appear to be met, reflecting the growth of the two groups over the past year. This move takes on additional significance in the context of preparations for upgrading the Athens Stock Exchange to developed market status. Moreover, both stocks are trading at historic highs, with GEK TERNA now above €34 and Motor Oil above €35. They are also heading toward a €4 billion market capitalization, with MOH currently valued at €3.88 billion and GEK at €3.53 billion. A Mediobanca report provided fresh fuel for the stock, raising the target price to €45.70, mainly due to the signing of the Egnatia Odos concession, the launch of the Northern Crete Motorway (VOAK), and the addition of new projects. The Italian bank estimates that the true value of the concessions portfolio has not yet been fully priced in. Mediobanca sees strong growth momentum at GEK TERNA due to its vertically integrated concessions-and-construction model and its large portfolio of long-term projects.

“Hellenic Ammunition” — Now Also by Law
On Monday, February 2, the establishment of the new company “Hellenic Ammunition S.A.” was officially completed. It is a joint venture between the state-owned Hellenic Defense Systems S.A. (EAS/HDS) and the Czech group Czechoslovak Group (CSG), via its subsidiary MSM Greece. This strategic partnership represents a significant step toward reviving ammunition production in Lavrio. It is recalled that the agreement to establish a joint venture for the production of large-caliber ammunition in Greece was signed last Friday, January 30, by Christoforos Boutzikakis, CEO of Hellenic Defense Systems, and Jiří Schonweitz, CEO of MSM Greece. According to the deed of incorporation, the new company has share capital of €102,040,800, divided into 102,040,800 registered ordinary shares with a nominal value of one euro each. As specified in a special article of the articles of association, the capital will be subscribed and paid by the two founders as follows:
– Hellenic Defense Systems, in kind and in cash. Specifically, in kind, a claim against the new company amounting to €51,995,496, “arising from the concession agreement dated 30.01.2026, for the concession to the Company of the use of specific production lines and assets, in accordance with the provisions of the Shareholders’ Agreement and said concession agreement.” In cash, it paid €45,312 and assumed 51% of the company’s share capital.

– MSM EXPORT, s.r.o., paid €49,999,992 in cash, assuming 49%. It is noted that the latter had already paid €22,151,984 on behalf of “Hellenic Ammunition” prior to its incorporation, leaving a remaining contribution of €27,848,008.
The articles of association state that the company, “operating within the framework of exclusively profit-oriented commercial and export activities,” has as its purpose:
– the production and trade of military equipment and materials from production lines at the Lavrio facilities;
– the renovation and upgrading of production lines;
– the transfer, installation, and operation of machinery and equipment for the production of small- and medium-caliber ammunition from Hymettus to the Lavrio facilities, for the establishment of new production lines;
– the use of storage facilities located at the Dervenochoria Gate;
– the further development and increase of production and sales of military material in the European Union and other markets.
The Board of Directors of “Hellenic Ammunition” includes Christoforos Boutzikakis as Chairman, Jiří Schonweitz as Vice Chairman & CEO, and Athanasios Tsiolkas, Dimitra Thomopoulou, and Tomas Kaisr as members.

“State Inc.” with…Turkish Fuel
At the very least, a Turkish businessman who aspires to operate in the Greek market displays remarkable imagination, having proceeded to establish a company under the name “Kratos Domiki Single-Member S.A.” (with the trade name “Kratos M.A.E.”). The company’s registered office is located in the… Greek state itself, specifically in Ilioupoli, and its purpose includes just about everything one can imagine. The primary objective is the exercise of all kinds of construction, commercial, industrial, agricultural, transport, financial, and business activities in Greece and abroad. Beyond that, it ranges from building construction works and the purchase, sale, and management of real estate to the exploitation of photovoltaic systems. The initial share capital amounts to €100,000, divided into 10,000 shares with a nominal value of €10 each, and was subscribed—as stated—by the company’s founder, Kemal Atzar, a businessman born in 1961 in Dinar, Turkey, and residing in Smyrna (Izmir). He also assumed the role of the company’s first managing director.

A Pale Rally in the Indian Stock Market After the Trade Deal with the U.S.
The Indian stock market was enthusiastic yesterday, with the BSE Sensex closing at 83,739 points (+2,072 points, +2.54%) and the NSE Nifty reaching 25,727 points (+2.55%). The trigger was a post by President Trump announcing that a trade deal had been concluded reducing tariffs on Indian products from 25% to 18%. At one point, the Sensex touched 85,871 points with gains of +5.1%, while the Nifty reached 26,341 points—one of the strongest single-day performances of recent years. However, the agreement reveals much more than the brokers’ surface optimism. Trump presented as an achievement the commitment of Indian Prime Minister Modi to stop purchases of Russian oil and to buy more than $500 billion worth of American products. India, however, officially confirmed neither claim; Modi merely referred to tariff reductions, without specific quantitative commitments. The agreement comes one week after the conclusion of India’s trade agreement with the European Union, which puts pressure on Washington. Large private Indian refineries had already begun reducing purchases of Russian oil in January, with forecasts for a drop to 1 million barrels per day in February and 800,000 in March. Obviously, the U.S. President will need to ratify the binding trade agreements he announced, with the approval of Congress. For now, everyone is pleased to hear about the reduction of tariffs from the initially imposed high of 50%. India secured better terms than Pakistan (19%), Vietnam, and Bangladesh (20%) and has reason to feel that it is positioning itself at the center of U.S. strategy vis-à-vis China. The question is whether the agreement will move beyond the stage of a “framework agreement” and ultimately be transformed into a binding text.